12/16/2023 0 Comments World explorer marketImports decreased by –9.4% (–7.0% in the second quarter). In China, cross-border trade continued to decline in the third quarter, with a year-over-year drop of –10.2% (–6.0% in the second quarter), exports dropped by –10.8% in the third quarter (compared with a –5.4% decline in the second quarter). Exports rose for Russia and the United States but fell for Brazil, China, and the eurozone imports increased for Brazil, Russia, and the United States but fell for China. There are mixed signals from global trade. In the emerging economies, China’s GDP growth in the third quarter slowed to 4.9% year-over-year (compared with 6.3% in the second quarter), reflecting the fading influence of the base effect. In the eurozone, third-quarter economic growth was weaker than expected, with GDP falling by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (for a 0.1% year-over-year rise). The Conference Board shows that US real GDP increased by 4.9% in the third quarter. Furthermore, more than half of low-income developing countries are in or at high risk of debt distress. Near-term inflation expectations have increased and, in turn, could contribute to the persistence of core inflation pressures. Furthermore, the October report states that, although the likelihood of a hard landing has decreased over the past six months, China’s property sector crisis could deepen. This is similar to April’s report, which forecasted global growth of 2.8% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October World Economic Outlook, global growth is forecast to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024 (Exhibit 1).
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